I Believe I can fly

云计算在许多方面只是互联网的一个比喻词，亦即计算和数据资源 日益迁移到 Web 上的比喻词。不过，区别也是存在的：云计算代 表网络计算价值的一个新的临界点。它提供更高的效率、巨大的可 扩展性和更快、更容易的软件开发。其中心内容为新的编程模型、 新的 IT 基础设施以及实现新的商业模式。

【摘要】本文简要介绍了数据挖极技术在犯罪分析上的应用和用算法构造决 策树的方法, 并结合一个涉嫌犯罪人员样本数据, 采用决策树分析方法进行了分类, 给出 了一个较为成功的挖掘思路和模式。

摘要: 地址自动匹配算法是利用Oracle 空间数据库实现快速地将以自然语言描述的地址信息 定位到含有基础POI 的地图上, 解决了以前传统的MIS 数据库中黄页信息的地址和GIS 数据难以 互相匹配的问题。高效的地址模糊与智能匹配算法, 为拓展GIS 技术的应用广度、深度提供了关键 的技术支持。

n the 27th of April 2005 a man suspected in being involved in over 46 arson cases was arrested after a two year campaign terrorising many Washington communities. Dating back to March 8th 2003 a series of fires set deliberately left investigators in the Washington area chasing what was described as “the most elusive and daring local arsonist in recent memory.” His reign of terror boasted 17 conclusively linked arsons and over 25 other suspected fires, with one death and more than a dozen people were injured or suffered smoke inhalation in the other fires, which caused millions of dollars in damage. He was Thomas A Sweatt, a 50 year old fast food restaurant manager.

The goal of developmental and life course criminology is to understand patterns of crime and delinquency over the life course. To date, research in this field has devoted a great deal of attention to describing patterns of change in the dependent variable over different ages, often in the form of trajectories or growth curves of offending in relation to age (LeBlanc and Loeber 1998; Piquero et al. 2007). Closely tied to such studies is a sizable body of research investigating potential predictors of differences in trajectories (e.g., Nagin et al. 1995; Nagin and Tremblay 1999, 2005)

Rossmo's formula is a geographic profiling formula to predict where a serial criminal lives. The formula was produced by the mathematician Kim Rossmo. Formula Imagine a map with an overlaying grid of little squares named sectors. A sector Si,j is the square on row i and column j, located at coordinates (Xi,Yj). The following formula specifies pi,j, the probability of the position of the

The effectiveness of a geographical decision support tool (Dragnet) for locating the base of serial offenders was compared across 570 models comprised of a range of negative exponential functions, buffer zone components, and normalization parameters. The models were applied to the body disposal locations within each series for 70 U.S. serial killers. Two normalization parameters were compared for all functions. The test of effectiveness was a specifically defined measure of search cost. When applied to the Dragnet predictions it was found that the specially developed normalization parameter (QRange) produced the optimal search costs. The optimal search cost was also found to be for a function that did not include any buffer zone. The optimal, average search cost across the whole sample was 11% of the defined search area. Fifty-one percent of the offenders resided in the first 5% of the search area, with 87% in the first 25%. All resided in the total defined search area. These results support the potential for operational tools using such procedures as well as contributing to our understanding of criminal’s geographical behavior. The applicability to other forms of serial crime is considered.

The main aim of the research discussed in this chapter is to compare the characteristics of offenses and victims with those of offenders. Information was extracted from police files concerning 345 burglars and 310 violent offenders in Nottinghamshire, England. The most important observable features of offenders were sex, ethnicity, age, height, build, hair color, hair length, and facial hair. Combinations of these features were used to construct offender profiles. Offense features and victim features were compared with offender features. There were many significant regularities. Offense profiles based on location, site, time, and day were compared with offender profiles based on address, age, sex, and ethnicity. Address–age–sex victim profiles were compared with address–age–sex–ethnicity offender profiles. In addition, the extent to which offenders tended to repeat similar types of offenses and victims was studied. A computerized offender profiling system is recommended, based on criminological theories and empirical data about statistical regularities linking the characteristics of offenders, offenses, and victims.

Based on recent scientific expeditions into the Pacific Ocean Gyre (a convergence zone where debris is accumulating), a wide variety of technical and scientific problems associated with this debris mass are coming to light. While dumping waste into the ocean is not a new activity, the scientific community’s realization that much of the debris (plastics, in particular) are accumulating in high densities over a large area of the Pacific Ocean is new. The scientific community also is learning that this debris creates many potential threats to marine ecology, and, therefore, to human well-being. Those who study this accumulation often describe it as plastic soup or confetti. See: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/photogalleries/pacific-garbage-patch-pictures/ This year’s ICM problem uses interdisciplinary modeling to addresses the complex issues stemming from the presence and accumulation of ocean debris, in order to help researchers and ultimately government policy makers to understand the severity, range, and potential global impact of the situation. As modeling advisors to the expedition, your job is to focus on one element of this debris problem, model and analyze its behavior, and determine its potential effect on marine ecology and the government policies and practices that should be implemented to ameliorate its negative effects. Be sure to consider needs for future scientific research and the economic aspects of the problem, and then write a report to your expedition leader summarizing your findings and proposals for solutions and needed policies

Background Geographic Profiling •Outline the research project •Overview of the software used •Research results •Outline some investigative strategies

Through the use of a computerized geographic profiling system and two case studies, this chapter examines the applicability of geographic profiling in the context of terrorist attacks. The findings of this examination are somewhat mixed with a final discussion of how principles of geographic profiling may be better developed and applied to terrorism.

Geographical profiling is an investigative technique that analyzes the spatial pattern of a related series of crime locations in order to predict the location of the offender’s residence. After explaining how today’s geographical profiling works, it is argued that such profiling may be improved if characteristics of the offense, the offender, and geographical circumstances are taken into account. Following that, we discuss the theoretical and practical limitations of geographical profiling.

IMPORTANT CHANGE TO CONTEST RULES FOR MCM/ICM 2010: Teams (Student or Advisor) are now required to submit an electronic copy of their solution paper by email to [email protected]. Your email MUST be received at COMAP by the submission deadline of 8:00 PM EST, February 22, 2010. COMAP Mirror Site: For more in: http://www.comap.com/undergraduate/contests/mcm/ MCM: The Mathematical Contest in Modeling ICM: The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling 2010 Contest Problems MCM PROBLEMS PROBLEM A: The Sweet Spot Explain the “sweet spot” on a baseball bat. Every hitter knows that there is a spot on the fat part of a baseball bat where maximum power is transferred to the ball when hit. Why isn’t this spot at the end of the bat? A simple explanation based on torque might seem to identify the end of the bat as the sweet spot, but this is known to be empirically incorrect. Develop a model that helps explain this empirical finding. Some players believe that “corking” a bat (hollowing out a cylinder in the head of the bat and filling it with cork or rubber, then replacing a wood cap) enhances the “sweet spot” effect. Augment your model to confirm or deny this effect. Does this explain why Major League Baseball prohibits “corking”? Does the material out of which the bat is constructed matter? That is, does this model predict different behavior for wood (usually ash) or metal (usually aluminum) bats? Is this why Major League Baseball prohibits metal bats? PROBLEM B: Criminology In 1981 Peter Sutcliffe was convicted of thirteen murders and subjecting a number of other people to vicious attacks. One of the methods used to narrow the search for Mr. Sutcliffe was to find a “center of mass” of the locations of the attacks. In the end, the suspect happened to live in the same town predicted by this technique. Since that time, a number of more sophisticated techniques have been developed to determine the “geographical profile” of a suspected serial criminal based on the locations of the crimes. Your team has been asked by a local police agency to develop a method to aid in their investigations of serial criminals. The approach that you develop should make use of at least two different schemes to generate a geographical profile. You should develop a technique to combine the results of the different schemes and generate a useful prediction for law enforcement officers. The prediction should provide some kind of estimate or guidance about possible locations of the next crime based on the time and locations of the past crime scenes. If you make use of any other evidence in your estimate, you must provide specific details about how you incorporate the extra information. Your method should also provide some kind of estimate about how reliable the estimate will be in a given situation, including appropriate warnings. In addition to the required one-page summary, your report should include an additional two-page executive summary. The executive summary should provide a broad overview of the potential issues. It should provide an overview of your approach and describe situations when it is an appropriate tool and situations in which it is not an appropriate tool. The executive summary will be read by a chief of police and should include technical details appropriate to the intended audience. ICM PROBLEM PROBLEM C: The Great Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch Click the title below to download a PDF of the 2010 ICM Problem. The Great Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch ? 2010 COMAP, The Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications May be reproduced for academic/research purposes For More information on COMAP and this project visit http://www.comap.com

The estimation of total population size for various phenomena of crime is an important factor critical for criminal justice policy formulation and criminological theory development. In this paper, methods are discussed for estimating the size of a criminal population from police records. Capture-recapture analysis techniques, borrowed from the biological sciences, are used to predict the size of population for migrating (or fleeing) fugitives and for street prostitutes. Heterogeneity and behavioral responses to previous police encounters are identified as major complicating factors. The basic problem is that the police records are virtually unaffected by a potentially large pool of cryptic criminals. It is shown how independently collected auxiliary data can address this problem.

Strategic information management system used to assist in investigations into serial crimes First commercial software created by Kim D. Rossmo Analyzes crime locations to determine the most probable area of offender residence.

Clues derived from the locations connected to violent repeat criminal offenders, such as serial murderers, rapists, and arsonists, can be of significant assistance to law enforcement. Such information allows police departments to focus their activities, geographically prioritize suspects, and to concentrate saturation or directed patrolling efforts in those zones where the criminal predator is most likely to be active. By examining spatial data connected to a series of crime sites, this methodological model generates a choropleth probability map that indicates the areas most likely to be associated to the offender-- home, work site, or travel routes. Based on the Brantingham theoretical structure and the routine activities approach, the model goes beyond simple cluster or centroid analysis by employing specific serial murder research, overlapping modified Pareto functions, and Manhattan distances. The methodology is also sensitive to the target/victim opportunity backcloth, landscape issues, and problems of spatial "outliers."

Given a series of linked crimes committed by the same offender, can we make predictions about the anchor point of the offender? The anchor point can be a place of residence, a place of work, or some other commonly visited location.

We begin by describing some of the mathematical foundations of the geographic profiling problem. We then present a new mathematical framework for the geographic profiling problem based on Bayesian statistical methods that make explicit connections between assumptions on oender behavior and the components of the mathematical model. It also can take into account local geographic features that either influence the selection of a crime site or influence the selection of an oender’s anchor point.

Western scientific geography originated from the influential quantitative revolution in 1950s. As a result, rapid progresses were achieved in both geographical theory and methodology, of which spatial analysis and positivism school played a vitally important role in the domain of human geography. Yet in 1960s various social problems, such as long-standing economic depression, severer social polarization, more obvious social inequity, appeared frequently and popularly throughout western world, bringing about sharp oppositions towards traditional geography studies in that they cared little about man's needs and real facts. In face of humanism since 1970s, western human geography experienced social-cultural transforming. Urban social geography, as one of the most important branches in western human geography system, has been the hottest concern and focus for western geographers' studies in recent years. This paper, firstly gives the definitions of social geography from different angles of views and different scholars. Secondly, it abstracts three characteristics from three aspects. In the third place, it generalizes main aspects of western urban social geography studies. In general, each research branch changes greatly respective focuses, from main introductions of basic spatial factor distribution to wider involvement of social, cultural, political factors, attaching more importance to such domains as production of space and spatial construction & reconstruction, etc. What's more, lots of new researches are caring more about spatial meanings as well as cultural metaphors. Fourthly, it points out some personal appraisals. Generally speaking, western urban social geography studies are characterized by problem-orientation, multiple topics, local tropism as well as qualitative methods.

Police investigations of serial murder, rape and arson can be assisted by a geographic perspective on the spatial behavior that led to the crime scene. For any crime to occur there must have been an intersection in both time and place between the offender and victim. How did this come to happen? What are the hunting patterns of predatory criminals? Environmental criminology and the routine activity approach provide a general framework for addressing these questions, and work in this area represents a practical application of theory to the real world of police investigation. By "inverting" research that has focused on relating crime places to offender residences, the locations of a series of crimes can be used to determine where an offender might reside. The probable spatial behavior of the offender can thus be derivedfrom information contained in the known crime-site locations, their geographic connections, and the characteristics and demography of the surrounding areas. By determining the probability of the offender residing in various areas, and displaying those results through the use of isopleth or choropleth maps, police efforts to apprehend criminals can be assisted. This investigative approach is known as geographic profiling.

There is a theoretical and experimental evidence that Fourier analysis is a powerful tool for tackling image processing problems. Its usefulness has been proven through its successful application in several fields. This paper describes the application of a new Fourier descriptor for outlining geographical profiles to be used in reconstruction and recognition.

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