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翁文波预测论基础.pdf
翁文波认为,在人类认知范围内,已知有对称规律、可数(量子化)规律、周期性规律等,假如建立相应的模型去拟合这种客观的现象规律,就可以猜测未知了。当然,人们建立 的模型和得出的结论,未必都和体系吻合,这就是猜测的难处所在。因为在认知过程中,会出现一些脱节的现象,或漏失了信息;或引入了假信息;或假正确,只有模型,没有猜测或偶然正确,没有建立模式得出结论等等。只有熟悉、结论和客观存在体系完全吻合,才能测正确。这是科学猜测的努力方向。
2019-05-18
The Future of Social Research on the Internet
We believe that the Social Sciences will undertake a gradual shift to research practices that involve the transparent access to large scale information, data and software and will use high performance computational and collaboration resources to tackle more complex and challenging problems than at present. The rate of social science engagement with this paradigm will vary depending on the specific research challenges/ interests and technical ability of the various groups involved. Some will naturally wait, while the large scale software houses like Microsoft [ref], IBM [ref]and SAS [ref] evolve the tools and technologies they use. Others, who have already reached the limit of what they can do with the current technology, will be pressing for innovation, and some will be doing it for themselves. The numbers of social scientists in this second group are however very small, say 1-2% of the social science research community. We estimate there is a further 70% who may use some of this technology in the medium to longer term. In this chapter we illustrate the motivation and some solutions being adopted by the innovators involved in quantitative social science studies of individual behaviour
2009-02-16
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